Look at this mess:
That mess up there is the polling trend map for Pennsylvania, courtesy of Pollster.com.
I’m not a very good gambler. I once got swindled by some guy in N.Y. for $20, and promptly lost another $20 trying to win the first $20 back. So I’m not going to declare anything about tomorrow with too much certainty. I will say I had a dream last night that Obama lost by 6 points, which is exactly the worst possible amount for him to lose by, as it is neither a glorious win for Clinton that will keep her campaign energized on the way to Indiana, nor is it close enough to get her to drop out of the race.
I’d say it’s likely Obama loses by 3%. If he’s down in the popular total by that small an amount, the weird distribution of delegates will have him take those in the end, a la Texas. And if that happens no one in the party is going to let her keep running.
Obama, though, can’t manage to seal the deal. And he’s a lot better at the surprise wins … so if things look close and optimistic for him, you can be pretty sure he’ll get screwed in the end. With that in mind, I’d also say that he might lose by 12-13%.
So, uh, my finally prediction? Obama will lose, probably, but maybe only by 3% … or also maybe by a whopping 12%. Or I’m psychic and he loses by 6%. There’s also a chance that he’ll lose by some number between 3%-12%, or maybe even by more. Or that it is nearly too close to call. And there’s the off chance that he’ll win by some number.
Anyone want to bet me on it?
He called it during the liveblog … look at what happened to searches on Bill Ayer during the debate:
via Marc Ambinder
More fun with food! The gray hag has a story on how the type of food you buy correlates to your voting habits, or something:
For example, Dr Pepper is a Republican soda. Pepsi-Cola and Sprite are Democratic. So are most clear liquors, like gin and vodka, along with white wine and Evian water. Republicans skew toward brown liquors like bourbon or scotch, red wine and Fiji water.
Classic proof that the newspaper is aging. Look at any college campus and you’ll find slutty conservative sorority girls downing vodka cranberries like they have a yeast infection. Plus, Hillary drinks Crown Royal … which makes her a Republican in disguise.
Previously, Who doesn’t love cheesefries?!
Our fine and glorious paper Philadelphia Weekly endorsed Obama in this week’s paper (I put up a fight for Alan Keyes). Check out awesome features by yours truly on what you might not know about the primary, and a delightful charticle (cowritten by Erica Palan) on the feel of both candidates’ Philly headquarters (complete with video!). Liz Spikol admits she’s voting for Obama because he’s black. Tara Murtha provides a little perspective with her Hillary love.
And now … Obama is 20 points down. Since it was done like, yesterday, it must be that we’re all really bitter ’cause Obama called us bitter. I hate it when politicians tell the truth.
American Research Group
Yet another amazing, in-depth report on how Rendell is campaigning for Clinton. Did you catch that? Rendell wants Clinton to win. And did you hear that he’s doing things to get her to win in Pennsylvania? And also that he wants to have her babies and give them to union leaders and top Democratic donors as thank-you gifts?
Rendell is Clinton’s friend in Pennsylvania [via the Inquirer]
Previously, Rendell Stalks Hillary, Stands Too Close in a Creepy Way
I shed many single tears because of this epically moving piece of cinema. Many, many single tears.