Polls and Predictions

Look at this mess:

That mess up there is the polling trend map for Pennsylvania, courtesy of Pollster.com.

I’m not a very good gambler. I once got swindled by some guy in N.Y. for $20, and promptly lost another $20 trying to win the first $20 back. So I’m not going to declare anything about tomorrow with too much certainty. I will say I had a dream last night that Obama lost by 6 points, which is exactly the worst possible amount for him to lose by, as it is neither a glorious win for Clinton that will keep her campaign energized on the way to Indiana, nor is it close enough to get her to drop out of the race.

I’d say it’s likely Obama loses by 3%. If he’s down in the popular total by that small an amount, the weird distribution of delegates will have him take those in the end, a la Texas. And if that happens no one in the party is going to let her keep running.

Obama, though, can’t manage to seal the deal. And he’s a lot better at the surprise wins … so if things look close and optimistic for him, you can be pretty sure he’ll get screwed in the end. With that in mind, I’d also say that he might lose by 12-13%.

So, uh, my finally prediction? Obama will lose, probably, but maybe only by 3% … or also maybe by a whopping 12%. Or I’m psychic and he loses by 6%. There’s also a chance that he’ll lose by some number between 3%-12%, or maybe even by more. Or that it is nearly too close to call. And there’s the off chance that he’ll win by some number.

Anyone want to bet me on it?

DMac Right for the Third Time Ever

He called it during the liveblog … look at what happened to searches on Bill Ayer during the debate:

via Marc Ambinder

NYTimes Does It Again

More fun with food! The gray hag has a story on how the type of food you buy correlates to your voting habits, or something:

For example, Dr Pepper is a Republican soda. Pepsi-Cola and Sprite are Democratic. So are most clear liquors, like gin and vodka, along with white wine and Evian water. Republicans skew toward brown liquors like bourbon or scotch, red wine and Fiji water.

Classic proof that the newspaper is aging. Look at any college campus and you’ll find slutty conservative sorority girls downing vodka cranberries like they have a yeast infection. Plus, Hillary drinks Crown Royal … which makes her a Republican in disguise.

Previously, Who doesn’t love cheesefries?!

PW <3 the Politics

Our fine and glorious paper Philadelphia Weekly endorsed Obama in this week’s paper (I put up a fight for Alan Keyes). Check out awesome features by yours truly on what you might not know about the primary, and a delightful charticle (cowritten by Erica Palan) on the feel of both candidates’ Philly headquarters (complete with video!). Liz Spikol admits she’s voting for Obama because he’s black. Tara Murtha provides a little perspective with her Hillary love.

OMG, Shocking Poll

And now … Obama is 20 points down. Since it was done like, yesterday, it must be that we’re all really bitter ’cause Obama called us bitter. I hate it when politicians tell the truth.

Clinton: 57%

Obama: 37%

American Research Group

How Many More Ways Can You Say Rendell Supports Clinton?

Yet another amazing, in-depth report on how Rendell is campaigning for Clinton. Did you catch that? Rendell wants Clinton to win. And did you hear that he’s doing things to get her to win in Pennsylvania? And also that he wants to have her babies and give them to union leaders and top Democratic donors as thank-you gifts?

Rendell is Clinton’s friend in Pennsylvania [via the Inquirer]

Previously, Rendell Stalks Hillary, Stands Too Close in a Creepy Way

Nutter’s Hillary Commercial

I shed many single tears because of this epically moving piece of cinema. Many, many single tears.

Mark Penn Steps Down(ish)

The lovely and always entertaining Mark “Obama Can’t Win the General” Penn has kinda sorta stepped down. He resigned/was fired from his post as a senior strategist for the Clinton campaign and will now just be doing polling. Presumably it’s the same polling that lead him to believe earlier in the campaign that it’s in Hillary’s best interest to remain cold and aloof, to ignore small states in favor of big ones, and to not actually raise very much money.

Maybe, just maybe, Mark Penn is a genius. A Rove to end all Roves. Clinton remains aloof, everyone thinks she’s a bitch, and then we get a slam of heartwarming tears after Iowa which push her to victory in New Hampshire. Hillary loses every small state ever, but wins a lot of the big ones, which gives her an awkward but compelling argument that, coupled with her appearance as a “fighter,” leaves some super delegates questioning whether … Obama can win the general … which is what Penn says he can’t do. He managed to take the presumptive nominee and make her into the underdog just in time for many irritating Rocky comparisons.

And then, after making a public ass out of himself six ways ’til Sunday with all sorts of conflict-of-interest and general suckitude, he steps down in time to ride a wave of publicity. Instead of a quiet Friday bow-out, he went out like a big Monday slap on the face.

Hmmm, very crafty Mark Penn. I’m on to you, you and your svengoulian trickery.

It’s just a shame we won’t get to see you mud wrestle David Axelrod or David Plouffe in the City Hall courtyard.

It’s Early, Early Morning in America

Like the many people in this video, I often get bill collectors calling my house at 3am. Thankfully, I’ve taught my sleeping children to answer the phone and tell those vultures that I’m currently in religious seclusion in the Andes.

Air America Proves It Is Still Neither Relevant Nor Funny

Whore jokes were so Jane Adams. Cursing until people laugh is so Dane Cook.