Look at this mess:
That mess up there is the polling trend map for Pennsylvania, courtesy of Pollster.com.
I’m not a very good gambler. I once got swindled by some guy in N.Y. for $20, and promptly lost another $20 trying to win the first $20 back. So I’m not going to declare anything about tomorrow with too much certainty. I will say I had a dream last night that Obama lost by 6 points, which is exactly the worst possible amount for him to lose by, as it is neither a glorious win for Clinton that will keep her campaign energized on the way to Indiana, nor is it close enough to get her to drop out of the race.
I’d say it’s likely Obama loses by 3%. If he’s down in the popular total by that small an amount, the weird distribution of delegates will have him take those in the end, a la Texas. And if that happens no one in the party is going to let her keep running.
Obama, though, can’t manage to seal the deal. And he’s a lot better at the surprise wins … so if things look close and optimistic for him, you can be pretty sure he’ll get screwed in the end. With that in mind, I’d also say that he might lose by 12-13%.
So, uh, my finally prediction? Obama will lose, probably, but maybe only by 3% … or also maybe by a whopping 12%. Or I’m psychic and he loses by 6%. There’s also a chance that he’ll lose by some number between 3%-12%, or maybe even by more. Or that it is nearly too close to call. And there’s the off chance that he’ll win by some number.
Anyone want to bet me on it?
We missed the Chelsea Gay Bar Crawl! Oh Nos!
From Pennsyltucky Politics:
“We love your highlights,” one man yelled as Chelsea walked out of Tavern on Carmac. “You’re gorgeous baby!”
“Thank you, but that’s not why you should vote for my mom,” she responded to laughter.
“Maybe they’re swingers,” joked Ann Dicker, a state Senate candidate.
Wow. Also on board for the night of fun: Rendell and Rob Reiner.
In the end:
Chelsea and the gays +5
Obama and the gays -1
I wish that I made bootleg Obama t-shirts. Really. Judging by the insane turnout for last night’s rally (30,000-40,000, depending on who you ask), and all the crazy t-shirts, hats, buttons, pins and butt-printed shorts, somewhere out there someone is cashing in big with all this.
You couldn’t ask for a more beautiful night for a rally. You could ask for a more on-time candidate. But it’s hard to complain when the weather is so great. If only they had dropped the lights and started serving liquor after the event — it would have been the most amazing party in Philly history.
Alas, it was a family affair.
The location (the Visitor’s Center at Independence Park) allowed for some mighty historical and impressive backdrops, and provided Obama the opportunity to prove that he passed 8th grade history. The speech was short and sweet, repeating the post-debate talking points (no more divisive politics, McCain is Bush III, vote for me!) we’ve been hearing everywhere, but the people ate it up (even the jaded photogs I was standing near seemed a bit enamored).
From the Daily News, former mayoral candidate and homeless guy Jesus White endorses Obama:
“I like Obama because I feel like he has the voice of the people and has captured the heart of the people,” White said. “He’s very well-versed on all of the issues, even the sublime issues, very outspoken and stands his ground. I think he’d be a very strong president.”
Also well versed in the sublime issues? Alan Keyes.
He called it during the liveblog … look at what happened to searches on Bill Ayer during the debate:
via Marc Ambinder
Just got confirmation from the Obama campaign that he’ll be here for a rally Friday.
Phillyist has it on good information that there’s going to be a massive rally (featuring Obama himself) at the Visitors Center from 6pm-8pm on Friday. I heard downstairs from random volunteer chatter that they’re trying to make it the biggest Obama rally on record, beating the crazy numbers from North Carolina.
Thanks to the ease of the Chinatown bus, I can just about guarantee that it’ll be huge. Also, that everyone who is actually from Philly is going to be so sick of dealing with random supporters that Hillary will win.
Our fine and glorious paper Philadelphia Weekly endorsed Obama in this week’s paper (I put up a fight for Alan Keyes). Check out awesome features by yours truly on what you might not know about the primary, and a delightful charticle (cowritten by Erica Palan) on the feel of both candidates’ Philly headquarters (complete with video!). Liz Spikol admits she’s voting for Obama because he’s black. Tara Murtha provides a little perspective with her Hillary love.
If you want truly gross politics, Philadelphia is the place to go. The L.A. Times is reporting that the Obama campaign has no plans to pay ward leaders on election day. Let’s break this down:
- Get out the vote efforts are usually spearheaded on the ground by ward leaders.
- Ward leaders and other random workers generally get paid on election day.
- They’re usually pretty poor.
- Obama’s campaign is rich.
- The payments are a major cog in Philly’s Democratic machine.
- Obama is (allegedly) anti-machine.
Which is worse? A guy who has millions and millions to spend on the campaign and throws it at other rich people to pay for advertising but refuses to pay campaign foot soldiers, or tossing out any semblance of “change” in order to buy in to a corrupt system?
The L.A. Times suggested it might cost him a lot of votes in Philly, particularly if Hillary buys off the ward leaders, and I could see why. It sucks when the only part of nasty politicking candidates like to get rid of are the parts that benefit the everyman.
And now … Obama is 20 points down. Since it was done like, yesterday, it must be that we’re all really bitter ’cause Obama called us bitter. I hate it when politicians tell the truth.
American Research Group