Category Archives: prediction

Polls and Predictions

Look at this mess:

That mess up there is the polling trend map for Pennsylvania, courtesy of

I’m not a very good gambler. I once got swindled by some guy in N.Y. for $20, and promptly lost another $20 trying to win the first $20 back. So I’m not going to declare anything about tomorrow with too much certainty. I will say I had a dream last night that Obama lost by 6 points, which is exactly the worst possible amount for him to lose by, as it is neither a glorious win for Clinton that will keep her campaign energized on the way to Indiana, nor is it close enough to get her to drop out of the race.

I’d say it’s likely Obama loses by 3%. If he’s down in the popular total by that small an amount, the weird distribution of delegates will have him take those in the end, a la Texas. And if that happens no one in the party is going to let her keep running.

Obama, though, can’t manage to seal the deal. And he’s a lot better at the surprise wins … so if things look close and optimistic for him, you can be pretty sure he’ll get screwed in the end. With that in mind, I’d also say that he might lose by 12-13%.

So, uh, my finally prediction? Obama will lose, probably, but maybe only by 3% … or also maybe by a whopping 12%. Or I’m psychic and he loses by 6%. There’s also a chance that he’ll lose by some number between 3%-12%, or maybe even by more. Or that it is nearly too close to call. And there’s the off chance that he’ll win by some number.

Anyone want to bet me on it?