Bad Polls, Good Polls and Holy Crappolas

Last week, PPP released a poll saying that Obama had overtaken Hillary in Pennsylvania 45% to 43%.

I didn’t bite. There are a million ways that polls can be screwed up, and the only way to estimate accurately is to discard the outliers and go for averages. But the latest poll by American Research Group shows a statistical tie: 45% to 45%. Maybe the PPP poll wasn’t so far off?

The RCP average still has Clinton with about 7 points on Obama, so maybe ARG and PPP are in cahoots to get mad media for themselves.


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